Government issue is currently the most popular tillhygget in political råkurret the election. From left are warned that the Alliance will continue to reign Sweden even if they lose the election, with the help of the Sweden Democrats. A threat that has been named “blåbrun mourn.” From right, states that there are not even any red-green alternative, only fragmentation and chaos. The threat is called “red-green mess.”
The party leaders say now is basically useless for anyone who wants to form an opinion about what happens after the election .
Today’s message is tailored to maximize their own election results, not to provide candid information to voters about how the parties intend to act after the election. Let us therefore take a closer look at how the situation might look like after 14 September.
Option 1:
The Social Democrats, the Green Party and the Left get together a majority in parliament. This requires at least 175 seats. Then Stefan Löfven quietly form a government. Probably just with the Green Party to then negotiate with the Left for support in parliament. But he can also make the tactical assessment that it is wiser to take the Left Party in government. It would, however, require some form of concession on the issue of gains in welfare.
Option 2:
The Alliance makes a historic pickup, wins the election and becomes larger than the red-green but may still not a majority. It is a situation similar to today’s. Then the alliance will try to continue to rule. It may be a bumpy ride since the Sweden Democrats probably become larger and with growing confidence may want to put more sticks in the Alliance’s wheel in order to influence demand. But the alternative is an election, and it will most parties probably want to avoid.
Option 3:
The Red-Green parties win the election, will be larger than the Alliance, but reaches not up to the majority. The alliance will then together with the Sweden Democrats bigger than the red-green. Theoretically, in this position several possibilities:
A / A new election, “extra election,” to again try to create a sustainable majority.
Risky for parties gone bad in the election. Those who are forcing a new election can be punished further by the voters. Moreover, expensive and tedious.
b / The Alliance acknowledges defeat and lets Stefan Löfven form a government.
He may then choose to do it with one or two parties. He will try to get the support of any bourgeois party but will be in this position probably faced.
He still can not reign as long alliance parties and the Sweden Democrats to agree on a common economic policy. A government does not need to have the majority to get through its budget, it is enough to get the most votes.
This would still be a difficult position for Löfven. He will often be forced to negotiate and sometimes he will suffer defeat. Or simply have to refrain from submitting proposals that can not be supported.
c / The Alliance continues to rule with the support of the Sweden Democrats.
This assumes that the Alliance gets the Sweden Democrats’ support for his economic policies. Otherwise, the red-green, in this situation certainly very combative, getting more votes for his budget. Then falls the government.
The Alliance will need to go from its previous commitments and negotiate with the Sweden Democrats. It would weaken the bourgeois further. Nor is it likely that Jimmie Åkesson, after a dramatic election success, would stand as a support party for four years without getting anything back. Åkesson has already threatened election if he does not receive a revised policy on refugees.
Government issue is not only about mathematics but more about politics. Ultimately it depends on the parties’ self-interest, what the parties believe that they serve on.
About the bourgeois parties loses the election, they will probably not earn anything on that stage for a new election. They would risk an even bigger loss.
The critical moment for Löfven-led government without parliamentary majority becomes the budget to be added by November. Worst State for Löfven is that the bourgeois parties put a joint alliance proposal and that the Sweden Democrats voting for it to demonstrate its power. Then it would be difficult to avoid early elections. But it would be therefore a great risk not only for the bourgeois parties, but also for the Sweden Democrats.
Fredrik Reinfeldt choose in the current situation not to answer questions about how he should act for a possible election defeat.
He would rather produce the Red-Green as fragmented. However, both the Liberal Party leader Jan Björklund and Annie Loof has recently said that at a loss to release forward Stefan Löfven the post of prime minister.
About the Alliance would still choose to rule with Åkesson’s support, they will be portrayed as immoral politicians who want be in power at any cost. It would get public opinion against them. And Fredrik Reinfeldt get eat their words on the Sweden Democrats from Almedalens scene in 2013:
“They bring all the hatred in Swedish politics …. All prestige they can get going they use to one thing and that is to go after people who have come here from other countries. They have no other idea, it is because they are as a party, it’s what they want to use their influence. And our answer is : You will not get anything influence! ” (Fredrik Reinfeldt July 3, 2013.)
In this situation, the best option for alliance parties is likely to go into opposition. To sit back and watch while the problems pile up for Stefan Löfvens weak government. And hope that the new government will lose in 2018 or even before its fall.
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